Last week was yet another mild one in NFL survivor pools, as the biggest upset (Carolina) caused just three percent of pools to be eliminated. This week, there are a few obvious choices, but many people have already used these teams, forcing them to dig a little deeper of potentially “burn” another high-upside squad, like the Chiefs, Rams, or Bills, they were hoping to save for later in the season. Below, the experts from TeamRankings break down current win odds, expected future values, and more strategy factors to assist with your Week 8 NFL survivor pool picks.
TeamRankings is the only site that provides customized picks that maximize your edge in NFL survivor pools. Check out their NFL Survivor Picks, Football Pick ’em Picks, and NFL Betting Picks. For a limited time, you can also get a free three-day trial of all their premium football picks.
FREE 3-DAY TRIAL: Survivor, pick ’em, betting picks from TeamRankings
Week 8 NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Tips, strategy for picks
Note: “Pick Popularity” numbers below refer to the estimated percentage of survivor pool entries nationwide that have already picked the team in question. Those numbers, as well as a team’s odds to win, can shift over the course of the week, so make sure to check our NFL survivor picks product for all the latest data plus customized pick advice for your pool.
BIG NEWS: Before we get to the picks, we’re happy to announce that we just published our first-ever e-book, Survivor Pool Strategy: What It Takes To Win. It explains all the key elements of survivor pool strategy and includes case studies on specific historical weeks and pool-winning entries. It’s free right now, so download your copy here.
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets
Pick Popularity: 42% (Most popular pick)
Point Spread: -10.0
The Bengals are on a roll, coming in off a blowout win at Baltimore. The Jets are on the opposite of a roll, losing 54-13 on Sunday and also losing starting quarterback Zach Wilson to a PCL sprain. Mike White will likely make his first career start against Cincinnati, although the Jets also just traded for Joe Flacco on Monday.
The Bengals are behind the Rams and Bills in win odds this week, but as the most popular pick, they have only moderate expected value. Using Cincinnati does save you a lot of future value relative to using the Rams or Bills, though.
MORE TEAMRANKINGS: Week 8 Pick ’em pool advice
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Giants
Pick Popularity: 21%
Point Spread: -10.0
The Chiefs are coming off an embarrassing performance at Tennessee. The Giants are coming off a decisive victory against Carolina. However, Kansas City is still a heavy favorite in this one. The Chiefs’ future value has taken a big hit with their inconsistent performances. They now aren’t quite the team worth saving that you might have imagined at the start of the year.
This is their highest projected win-odds game for the rest of the year, and we project them at no higher than 70 percent to win any other game right now. The Chiefs are a lot closer to the Bengals in future value than they are to the Rams or Bills. That means it’s OK to use them now, assuming you’re willing to put your survivor life on the line with a team that has been plagued by turnovers.
WEEK 8 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
Pick Popularity: 14%
Point Spread: -13.5
The Bills are a high-value play this week. They’re favored by nearly two touchdowns in a week with two more popular options.
However, Buffalo will be a great value play in a lot of future weeks, as well, especially considering more than half of a typical pool has used them already. The Bills have several other weeks in the near future where they should be the biggest favorite on the board.
Los Angeles Rams at Houston Texans
Pick Popularity: 11%
Point Spread: -14.5
Over half of the entries in a typical pool have already used the Rams, which limits how many can use them now. They are a high-value play for the second week in a row, and as the largest favorite on the board, they have the highest expected value right now.
With that said, they do still have the third-most future value of any team. They could have the single-highest EV this year in Week 13 at home against Jacksonville in what looks like a difficult survivor week.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick Popularity: 5%
Point Spread: -3.0
Let’s cut to the chase on this one. Don’t pick Seattle. The Seahawks are favored by only three points against the Jaguars. They would have been in contention as a survivor pick this week with Russell Wilson at QB, but he’s still hurt, so Geno Smith remains under center.
This popularity number may go down a bit, but even if it does, the Seahawks are too risky this week. They also have some good future value late in the season when Wilson could return.
Get our Week 8 survivor pick for your pool!
Every possible NFL Week 8 survivor pick has an expected value in the current week as well as a future value associated with it. Those values can vary significantly based on the characteristics of your pool, such as its size and its rules. It takes a lot of data and math to figure out which pick (or combination of picks, if you’re playing multiple entries) gives you the biggest edge to win your survivor pool. That’s why we’ve spent years building our NFL Survivor Picks product.
Our product asks you a few questions about your survivor pool, then provides customized pick advice using the latest matchup data, betting market odds, and public picking trends. It tracks the picks you’ve already made and even recommends how to split up your picks if you’re playing multiple entries. There’s nothing else like it, and it’s why our subscribers have reported nearly $3 million in survivor pool winnings since 2017.
We invite you to try it out, and good luck in your survivor pools this week!