The first game of Week 9 is an important one, as the Jets, fresh off their survivor-killing upset over the Bengals, take on the Colts. Indianapolis is one of the biggest favorites and most popular eliminator options this week, but it isn’t the only one drawing attention in NFL survivor pools. The experts from TeamRankings are here to break down the pros and cons of the five most popular picks since you’re probably considering choosing at least one of these teams in Week 9.
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Week 9 NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Tips, strategy for picks
Note: “Pick Popularity” numbers below refer to the estimated percentage of survivor pool entries nationwide that have already picked the team in question. Those numbers, as well as a team’s odds to win, can shift over the course of the week, so make sure to check our NFL survivor picks product for all the latest data plus customized pick advice for your pool.
BIG NEWS: Before we get to the picks, we’re happy to announce that we just published our first-ever e-book, Survivor Pool Strategy: What It Takes To Win. It explains all the key elements of survivor pool strategy and includes case studies on specific historical weeks and pool-winning entries. It’s free right now, so download your copy here.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Denver Broncos
Pick Popularity: 26%
Point Spread: -9.5
The Cowboys are coming off a win over the Vikings on Sunday Night Football, and they expect QB Dak Prescott to return from his calf injury. Meanwhile, the Broncos just traded away a franchise icon in Von Miller.
Dallas is the third-largest favorite this week, trailing only the Bills and the Colts, but the Cowboys also have more future value than Indianapolis. In fact, the Cowboys are now fourth in future value thanks to a schedule that includes several potential survivor-worthy matchups.
MORE TEAMRANKINGS: Week 9 Pick ’em pool advice (link coming soon)
Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets
Pick Popularity: 24%
Point Spread: -10.5
The Colts were the most popular survivor pick three weeks ago against Houston, and they’re back as a double-digit favorite against the Jets. New York is coming off its best game of the year, as backup QB Mike White made his first career start and threw for over 400 yards to beat the Bengals.
This is a fairly high-value spot to consider Indianapolis. With a segment of the pool on Dallas and another chunk split across several riskier options, the Colts currently aren’t too popular despite their win odds. They do have some modest future value, including next week against Jacksonville.
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick Popularity: 13%
Point Spread: -14.5
The Bills are the biggest favorite of the week. As will be the case in several weeks going forward, they are a high-value pick because plenty of survivor entries have already used them and others are saving them for later in the year. Because you can only use them once, choosing when to pick the Bills comes down to your other options.
If you have reasonable alternatives, you should consider saving them, as they have the most future value of any team. If you don’t, it’s reasonable to pick them now.
WEEK 9 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans
Pick Popularity: 12%
Point Spread: -6.5
Once you get past the teams favored by more than a touchdown, the Dolphins are the next-most popular option, as they’re facing the Texans.
The Dolphins have the lowest future value of a group that also includes Pittsburgh, New Orleans, and Baltimore. They have a mediocre EV this week due to some popularity and similar win odds to others, but you could save future value for your entry and give yourself more flexibility in future weeks by picking them.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Chicago Bears
Pick Popularity: 7%
Point Spread: -6.5
Pittsburgh also has some moderate popularity as a team favored by just under a touchdown against the Bears. The Steelers also have fairly low future value. They do project as the most popular pick next week when they play Detroit at home, but that potential high popularity (and higher win odds for some other teams) means their EV may not be great.
The Steelers’ value depends on where their win odds end up relative to other options like Miami, Baltimore, and New Orleans and if you’re willing to use them or avoid them next week.
Get our Week 9 survivor pick for your pool!
Every possible NFL Week 9 survivor pick has an expected value in the current week as well as a future value associated with it. Those values can vary significantly based on the characteristics of your pool, such as its size and its rules. It takes a lot of data and math to figure out which pick (or combination of picks, if you’re playing multiple entries) gives you the biggest edge to win your survivor pool. That’s why we’ve spent years building our NFL Survivor Picks product.
Our product asks you a few questions about your survivor pool, then provides customized pick advice using the latest matchup data, betting market odds, and public picking trends. It tracks the picks you’ve already made and even recommends how to split up your picks if you’re playing multiple entries. There’s nothing else like it, and it’s why our subscribers have reported nearly $3 million in survivor pool winnings since 2017.
We invite you to try it out, and good luck in your survivor pools this week!